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How a proposed NBA Draft Lottery reform could affect the Chicago Bulls

By Michael Whitlow

SECAUCUS, NJ - MAY 20: Steve Schanwald, Executive Vice President of Baketball Operations of the Chicago Bulls poses for a photo during the 2008 NBA Draft Lottery at the NBATV Studios on May 20, 2008 in Secaucus, New Jersey. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images)
SECAUCUS, NJ - MAY 20: Steve Schanwald, Executive Vice President of Baketball Operations of the Chicago Bulls poses for a photo during the 2008 NBA Draft Lottery at the NBATV Studios on May 20, 2008 in Secaucus, New Jersey. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Later this month, the NBA’s board of governors will vote on whether or not to change the draft lottery process, which could limit the amount of “tanking” teams do in the future. How could this affect the Bulls and their new direction moving forward?

Coming into this year’s draft, the question coming in for the Chicago Bulls was whether or not the Bulls would try to put another piece around Jimmy Butler or trade the three-time All-Star away on draft night and start anew. Obviously, the answer came in the form of the latter and Butler is now a member with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

For this upcoming year’s draft, the questions coming in will be how high are the Bulls going to draft and who will become the new face of the franchise in the future as a high lottery pick. Fortunately for the Bulls, more questions won’t surround them in the draft lottery for this upcoming year.

According to ESPN NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski and sources close to the situation, the NBA and the board of governors will vote on guidelines surrounding how teams can rest healthy players and they’ll vote on a reform of the league’s draft lottery.

Here’s Woj with more on the situation:

"The board of governors will vote on instituting the changes at a meeting in New York on Sept. 28. The plan to change the Draft Lottery will need a three-quarters majority to pass into legislation. The recommendation on resting players needs a simple majority.The NBA’s proposed changes to the system would begin with the 2019 draft and include a smoothing-out of odds among the league’s worst teams, league sources said."

What does that mean for the bad teams in the NBA?

Under the current landscape of the NBA’s draft lottery, the team with the worst record has a 25 percent of getting the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. The team with the second-worst record has a 19.9 percent chance of getting the top pick and the team with the third-worst pick has a 15.6 percent chance of obtaining the top selection.

In terms of “smoothing out the odds”, the reform proposes that those three teams with the worst records in the league will each have a 14 percent chance of getting the top pick, along with lowering the teams with better records even further.

How does this affect the Bulls?

Luckily for the Bulls, this proposed reform would kick in after the 2018-2019 season and not after this season: the 2017-18 season. That means that the Bulls — who could be a legitimate contender for having the worst record in the league — could still potentially have a 15.6-25 percent chance of getting the top pick in the 2018 NBA Draft.

How this reform affects whatever plan the Bulls have for their rebuild

NBC Sports Chicago’s Mark Schanowski made a good point in terms of the lottery reform for the Bulls.

Let’s assume the Bulls are atrocious (which is definitely on the table) and get a top-3 pick next June. Hell, let’s even say they win the lottery, get the top pick and have their choice of Luka Doncic, Michael Porter, Jr. and Marvin Bagley III.

That means heading into the draft in June, the Bulls will have the top pick and with Dwyane Wade and Robin Lopez‘ salary likely out of the picture at this point, they’ll have northwards of $40 million in cap space to structure a more modern roster to the NBA’s current style today.

Even with Doncic, MPJ or MB3 in the fold for the 2018-19 season, the Bulls aren’t winning 40-50 games and getting back into the playoffs. That means they’ll probably be in the lotto again in two summers. That’s when the potential reform could kick in, which means the pick odds “smooth out”. Pending on what the Bulls’ record is at the point, there’s a chance they could be in the hunt for another high pick, but lacking the odds of the prior summer in 2018.

There’s plenty to be figured out at this point and most of this is just hypothetically speaking. The vote isn’t until the 28th this month and it may not even pass due to the fact that it needs a three-quarters majority to be accepted and put into place, per Woj.

Next: What kind of scorer is Zach LaVine?

The only thing that’s for sure about things right now for the Bulls is that they’re not going to win very many games, so there’s plenty of time to think of some fun tanking hashtags.

#LoseForLuka

#PlayPoorForPorter

#SecureTheBagley

#DogItForDoncic

#PullBackForPorter

#StarvinForMarvin

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