The most important question hanging over the Chicago Bulls this offseason is whether they will rebuild or stay in NBA purgatory.
The Bulls finished this season the same as the last one, though with one less win and an even bigger defeat in the play-in game.
Arturas Karnisovas promised change was coming in a recent press conference, but also indicated that a rebuild is “not in his DNA.”
"I’m thinking about winning, Karnisovas said. That’s why I’m here. I’m not here to stay in the middle. The formula that came up three years ago, I thought it was working until a couple injuries. And we’re gonna have to find these answers in this offseason. Obviously, the results are not where we want it. I totally get it. And it’s on me to figure it out."
The Bulls played well when Lonzo Ball was healthy but counting on him and Zach LaVine (not to mention a 35-year-old) DeRozan is a recipe for being right back here again next season, stuck in the same cycle.
It won’t be shocking if that’s exactly what they do, as the Bulls don’t have the trade assets or cap space to make dramatic change unless they want to tear it down.
If they do go that surprising route, here is a plan for how to do it. Some of it will be painful, but at least it will get the Bulls out of NBA purgatory and give fans some hope for the future.
Step 1: Find a trade for Zach LaVine
This isn’t going to be easy, as few teams will be willing to take on his remaining three years after he just had surgery and finished the season injured after playing only 25 games.
But there are trades out there, especially if the Bulls are willing to give him away for little more than cap relief. The Detroit Pistons have been the team most often mentioned, as they have tons of cap space and the need to make some kind of splash.
If they strike out elsewhere, a buy-low trade for Zach LaVine might work. The Pistons could send the Bulls a player like Marcus Sasser along with a bunch of second round picks, most importantly taking on LaVine’s contract and clearing $40 million from their books.
Step 2: Let DeMar DeRozan walk
This would be tough, but it’s the bed the Bulls made by not trading him at the deadline when they could have reaped some kind of assets. DeRozan is still good and he’s durable, so re-signing him does make some sense, but less so if you are rebuilding.
Letting him go for nothing would be painful, but not as painful as paying him upwards of $40 million a year when he is 37-38 years old, sacraficing a lot of financial flexibility in the process. Even if you could get him on a shorter deal worth say 3 years/$90 million, you’d essentially be committing to this same group only older, now paying the luxury tax and with no room to make additions.
Trading LaVine into someone’s cap space without taking a big contract back and letting DeRozan walk would be a crime of asset management, but these two are now sunk costs and throwing good money after bad just makes it worse. The Bulls now have upwards of $70 of cap space to play around with.
Step 3: Re-sign Patrick Williams
This could be tricky, as he might have suitors who make offers the Bulls probably shouldn’t match, but if they can retain Williams on a reasonable deal, they should.
Big forwards who can shoot will always have value in the NBA and Williams has shown he can do that when he’s healthy. But health is a big question, so tendering him the qualifying offer would be a risk at $13 million, but one the Bulls might have to take to make him a restricted free agent.
Williams has not been the star they were hoping for, but with precious few young talents, the Bulls can’t just let Williams walk for nothing. If they can extend him for a reasonable deal, they should, but if some other team swoops in with a ridiculous number, be prepared to let him walk too.
Step 4: Extend Alex Caruso
I am a big fan of extending Alex Caruso no matter which direction the Bulls decide to go, as he’ll be a valuable player either way. His extension amount is 4 years/$78 million which will still be good value for an All-Defensive player who is the heart of the team.
Caruso has value to any team and that contract will still be movable near its end when he is 33-34 years old. If you can build a playoff team in the next few seasons, he’s a valuable contributor, if not, you can flip him for future assets at some point, so there isn’t much risk in extending Caruso.
Step 5: Use cap space to sign short-term deals and find a center
The Bulls need an upgrade at center and defensive help on the perimeter and they can start to find it in free agency with what is left from their cap space.
They could throw a bag at a young free-agent center like Nic Claxton or Isaiah Hartenstein, which would give them a future piece and address a present need at the same time. Either guy would improve the Bulls’ rim protection and depth at center while pushing Vucevic to a lesser role.
After that, signing 3-and-D wing players should be the goal, either younger role players that can grow with the team (Gary Trent Jr.) or stopgap guys on shorter deals.
Step 6: Compete, but keep that 2025 pick
The 2025 NBA Draft is far deeper than this one, so the Bulls goal should be to compete next season, but to keep their top-10 protected pick, which will be a real asset whether they use it or trade it.
The Bulls may have to take a step back for one season, land a high-ceiling draft pick and then add to their roster with cap space after Ball’s contact clears and the Bulls suddenly have a clean slate around Coby White, young center, 2024 pick, 2025 pick, Williams and Caruso with plenty of cap space to improve with a much deeper free agent class.
It’s not easy to rebuild, as you have to sell your fans on hope, which is why I don’t expect the Chicago Bulls to do it, but one season of being bad could be the key to being stuck in the middle forever.