This is a critical season for the Chicago Bulls 23-year-old power forward Lauri Markkanen to get things right in the final year of his rookie contract.
The way that the Chicago Bulls former Arizona Wildcats seven-footer and 23-year-old fourth-year power forward Lauri Markkanen played last season did anything but inspire confidence heading into the final year of his rookie contract. Markkanen reasonably had his worst season in the NBA so far in his short career.
And that down season really came at the worst time for Markkanen. The time for him to get serious in contract extension talks were earlier this month, just ahead of tip off of the 2020-21 regular season slate. But the Bulls and Markkanen were not able to reach an agreement for a contract extension heading into this 2020-21 campaign.
Markkanen will wind up getting a qualifying offer around $9 million before he heads into the restricted free agent market next offseason. Newly hired executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas could still very well bring Markkanen back for the 2021-22 season, but the “Finnisher” will need to prove himself this season.
No matter what, this season needs to be the one where Markkanen makes some big strides and starts living up to some of the hype he came out of college with more than three years ago. He’s shown flashes here and there, but a combination of lack of confidence, poor usage, and injury issues hampered his development so far.
Are Karnisovas and first-year head coach Billy Donovan the right fit to move Markkanen’s career forward during the 2020-21 season?
Here’s a look into three bold predictions for Markkanen as he enters his fourth year in the NBA with the Bulls.
3) Bold predictions for Chicago Bulls PF Lauri Markkanen
Lauri and Thaddeus Young become an effective two-man combination
The thought of what the Bulls could do if they were able to run Markkanen at the five has always been intriguing for this fan base. But the problem is that Markkanen never showed the ability to contend down low on the defensive end. Even a lot of the contact that Markkanen would see in the paint on offense has caused him problems in the recent past.
One player that could be very effective alongside Markkanen in some form of a rotation off the bench this season, if he could play at the five, is veteran forward Thaddeus Young. Last season, Young and Markkanen created an absolute log jam at the four, and weren’t able to function together on the floor at all.
That problem was largely created by the way that both Markkanen and Young were utilized by former head coach Jim Boylen. Young was used completely different last season, as more of a stretch wing or forward, instead of working from inside-out like he usually does.
The two-man combination of Markkanen and Young was not efficient at all last season. They averaged 6.5 less points per 100 possessions as a two-man combination last season, had an effective field goal percentage six points lower than normal, but attempted roughly six more three-point tries per 100 possessions.
There were obvious problems with the way that two-man combination was used, when they were actually out on the floor together. But that shouldn’t be too difficult of a fix. If Markkanen can show he can play at the five at times this season, then he could be a functional pairing with Young. If not, they shouldn’t be utilized on the floor together at the same time.
2) Bold predictions for Chicago Bulls PF Lauri Markkanen
Averages more than one steal and one block per 36 minutes for the first time
Markkanen’s presence on the defensive end of the floor always brought mixed results for this Bulls team. In his first three years in the NBA, Markkanen has posted the following defensive ratings (in order from rookie season to last year): 110, 112, 110. And he posted the following defensive box plus/minus ratings (in the same order): -1.2, -1.5, -0.5.
It is notable that Markkanen posted a career best defensive box plus/minus rating last season, and tied his career best mark in defensive rating. His block percentage dropped to below 1.7 for the first time in his career last season, but that was once again largely due to poor usage on that end of the floor by Boylen and his staff.
The good news is that Markkanen could be able to parlay his career best 1.4 steal percentage and -0.5 defensive box plus/minus rating from last season to become a more proficient and well-rounded defender in his fourth year. He should have a more fine tuned role on defense this season compared to last, especially if veteran small forward Otto Porter Jr. remains healthy.
If both OPJ and rookie forward Patrick Williams are healthy and efficient playing at the three (or sometimes the four in a small ball lineup), then it should take a lot of defensive pressure off Markkanen’s shoulders. It’s not out of the question that Markkanen could get at least 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per 36 minutes this season, which would be the first time in his career that he’s done so.
1) Bold predictions for Chicago Bulls PF Lauri Markkanen
True shooting percentage tops 58 for the first time
Posting career bests in a number of major statistical categories will be an important step for Markkanen to truly start living up to the hype in his fourth year in the NBA. Markkanen showed flashes in the past, namely down the stretch during the 2018-19 season, where he could become a really brilliant modern big man in this league.
The problem for him always was doing something like that consistently, and staying healthy while doing it. Markkanen did at least remain mostly healthy last season, as he played in 50 games for the Bulls during the shortened 2019-20 campaign (all 50 games of which he started in). He just wasn’t too efficient in those 50 games played, especially at the outset of last season.
Interestingly enough, Markkanen did register a career-high 56.0 true shooting percentage last season. He also registered a career-high three-point attempt rate of 53.6 percent and 51.7 effective field goal percentage. If Markkanen can get his shooting stroke straightened out on a more consistent basis this season, getting his true shooting up around two or three percentage points is a realistic expectation.
Last season, Markkanen shot 42.5 percent from the field, 34.4 percent from beyond the arc, and 82.4 percent from the free-throw line. Basketball-Reference projects him to shoot 43.9 percent from the field, 36.1 percent from beyond the arc, and 84.4 percent from the free-throw line, during the 2020-21 season. Those projected shooting percentages would get him very close to a 58.0 true shooting percentage this season.