Film Room with the Bulls: Nikola Mirotic could be set for a good late season stretch
Nikola Mirotic is a restricted free agent at the end of this season, which means the Bulls can match any offer presented to him. Will they or won’t they depends on this final 20+ game stretch of the year, and according to the film, it’s been good so far.
A debate as old as time (meaning the last three seasons): is Nikola Mirotic a good basketball player?
For some, it’s “you don’t win as many awards as Mirotic did on the best non-NBA basketball team on the planet and be a bad player”.
For others, it’s “you could’ve traded him for a slice of Lou Malnati’s pizza and the Bulls would’ve won the trade”.
As bad as Mirotic was in the 48 games he played in before the All-Star break, he’s been the opposite of that sample size in the last two games after the break. Mirotic shot 38.1 percent overall, including 29.9 percent from 3-point range on 4.9 attempts per contest before New Orleans.
In the two games after the All-Star Game, Mirotic has come out of the break with a new lease on life after Taj Gibson was sent packing to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Against the Phoenix Suns and Cleveland Cavaliers (minus LeBron James and Kevin Love), Mirotic has played almost 33 minutes over the two games (32.9) and shot 55.6 percent from the field (including making six of his 12 attempts from long range).
Sure, it’s almost the smallest sample size a player could with just two games against lesser competition, but with Gibson out of the Bulls’ front court rotation, Mirotic has a great chance to show the Bulls that matching any and all offers for him this summer would be a wise decision.
The question is, what’s made Mirotic so good after the break?
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He’s taking (and making) good shots
Before the break, Mirotic’s best spots on the floor (with more than just 10 total attempts) went as followed: the restricted area (58.3 percent shooting), the left corner 3 (40.5 percent shooting) and the right corner 3 (36.8 percent).
Guess where Mirotic has taken 12 of his 18 total attempts in these two games? You guessed it, from those three spots on the floor.
This play runs much deeper than “Mirotic has to be stronger with the ball on the transition drive”. Jimmy Butler made a fantastic play to keep this possession alive inside of the final two minutes this past Friday night in Chicago, but Mirotic made the smart play by getting back into the play and giving Butler an outlet to make a pass out of a triple team underneath the rim.
Not only did Mirotic make the shot, it trimmed the Phoenix lead to just a point in a possession where the Bulls really needed points late (in a game that they eventually won in overtime).
This play shows what happens when you can actually space the floor and run a spread pick-and-roll with your best player as the primary ball-handler.
Robin Lopez comes to set a screen on Eric Bledsoe to free up Butler. T.J. Warren slid over to not give Butler such an easy path to the path with Alex Len sinking deep in the paint because of Lopez coming out so high. Butler makes a quick, simple bounce pass to Denzel Valentine, and with Warren out of position and fellow rookie Marquese Chriss not wanting to get Valentine an easy look, Valentine makes an extra pass to Mirotic, who drains yet another left corner 3.
See what happens when you have shooters making shots and you’re able to space the floor in the half-court?
Mirotic’s rebounding has picked back up after the break
One of the forgotten aspects of Nikola Mirotic’s game is his ability to rebound the basketball.
In the five games before Mirotic missed the final three games before the All-Star break with back spasms, Mirotic grabbed a grand total of 20 rebounds against the likes of Oklahoma City, Houston, Sacramento, Golden State and Phoenix.
During these last two games, Mirotic has grabbed 18 rebounds, including 10 in the Cleveland win on Saturday for his first double-double since Dec. 23.
Before the break, Mirotic was grabbed 12.4 of the total rebounds while he was on the floor and 21.4 of the defensive rebounds while he was on the floor. To put that in perspective, 6’3″ Russell Westbrook was grabbing 16.8 percent of the total rebounds for the Thunder while he was on the floor and 27.7 of OKC’s defensive rebounds. Triple-doubles and the whole uncontested rebounding debate or not, Mirotic has to do better on the glass and he has.
In the last two games, Mirotic has grabbed 17.6 percent of the total rebounds and 31.4 percent of the defensive rebounds while he’s on the floor. Those numbers (and once again, small sample size), would put Mirotic 17th and 6th in the entire NBA in those specific categories.
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Starting Mirotic would probably increase his production down the stretch
Since the point guard position has become a carousel, it’s hard to fully measure what Mirotic has done with starters this season, but the four-man unit of Mirotic and the three usual suspects in the starting lineup — Butler, Lopez and Dwyane Wade — looks good when you dive deeper.
In the 28 games (85 total minutes so far this season) these four have played together, the numbers look good.
The unit’s offensive rating is 116.6 (which is 0.1 higher than the Golden State Warriors’ league-leading team ORtg), their defensive rating is 105.9 (which would be fifth-best in the NBA, according to the full team DRtg category), and their overall net rating of 10.7 is tied for the third-best among four-man units of players that are actually still on the roster (with a minimum of 75 total minutes played).
As good as Bobby Portis can be at times, Nikola Mirotic offers much more on both ends of the floor for the Bulls. Portis is still completely lost defensively much of the time and Mirotic’s ability to slow down productivity on the perimeter hasn’t gone unnoticed.
It’s just two games and the Bulls are still barely over .500, but they’ve won four in a row and one of their more important pieces appears to be picking his game up a bit for the homestretch.