Step-by-Step: A Chicago Bulls tanking guide

Daniel Coughlin

Jan 24, 2017; Orlando, FL, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Taj Gibson (22) holds onto the basket post after being fouled during the second half at Amway Center. The Bulls won 100-92. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

There are a number of different paths that the Chicago Bulls could take moving forward. They’re currently 24-25, clinging to the edge of the playoffs with no indication of a plan to become a contender or to plunge to the bottom into the lottery, what gives?

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Chicago is having the most average of all seasons you could have. Not only have they hovered around .500 for a large portion of the season, they’re even for the season on point differential as Nick Friedell of ESPN points out.

With the win, the Bulls now have a point differential of 0.0. Averaging 101.6 a game and giving up 101.6 a game.
— Nick Friedell (@NickFriedell) January 30, 2017

Of course, there’s always more to it for this team.

Looking at the record is one thing; the point differential is another. They both tell us that this year’s squad is mediocre. The Bulls occupy the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference, half a game ahead of the Charlotte Hornets and two games ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks. That’s a small margin of error for a team that has demonstrated plenty of error this season.

If things were to hold as they are now, Chicago would match up with the Boston Celtics in the first round of the playoffs. It might be a decent series, not a sweep, but Boston wins that series. If they slip to the eighth seed, they’ll match up with the Cleveland Cavaliers – presumptuous, perhaps, but duh – and they would absolutely get run right out of the playoffs in that scenario.

There’s also the possibility that they move up a spot and get the Toronto Raptors, a team they’ve dominated in the regular season for the past several years. Couldn’t you just see Gar Forman and John Paxson talking themselves into believing that the Bulls are the better team and could sweep the Raptors? Making the playoffs isn’t much to shout about for Chicago, but sneaking into the second round would be considered a success for this team.

Things have been rough for the Hornets, so who knows what the rest of the season holds for them. They have Kemba Walker and head coach Steve Clifford, one of the best in the business. And then there’s the Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Greg Monroe, and a soon-to-be-healthy Khris Middleton – sounds like a squad that could easily make up two games on the Bulls over the next 30 or so games.

Things aren’t dire for the Bulls, we can see that. What we can’t see is the future trajectory beyond this ho-hum season that everyone will look to forget as soon as possible.

Gar Forman hasn’t done a good enough job to keep his position, but he doesn’t seem to be on any kind of hot seat. He’s built a team that’s high on salary and low on talent. They lucked into Jimmy Butler, drastically overpaid Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo, and drafted themselves out of a future. And all of this was done while claiming they would get younger and more athletic. The only way that they have fulfilled this promise was when Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol left the team and were replaced by Robin Lopez, acquired via trade from the New York Knicks. He’s both younger and more athletic than the two departed players. That’s all they’ve got going for them on that front.

That doesn’t paint the greatest picture and when combined with the unresolved disappointments of a Chicago team that should have been during the Tom Thibodeau era with a healthy Derrick Rose, there is a certain amount of impatience among the fan base. Part of that fan base thinks that it could be time to tank.

Here’s a step-by-step of how the Bulls could tank and potentially get a big return, if that was what the organization were to decide. Of course, as bad an idea as a tanking might be, most of the ideas that we’ve seen manifested by Forman and friends have been equally as bad, or worse, and don’t seem to have a plan for the future.

Jan 24, 2017; Orlando, FL, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Taj Gibson (22) holds onto the basket post after being fouled during the second half at Amway Center. The Bulls won 100-92. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Taj Gibson is set free

Gibson has been a fantastic teammate and player while with the Bulls organization. In fact, it’s the only team he’s played for and been a part of. Despite getting the starting job pulled out from under him and spending years making less money and getting less playing time than he could have elsewhere, he’s done his job night after night.

Now, it’s time to let him go. Taj still has plenty of productivity in him. He’s a hard-working defender on a fairly inexpensive deal. Guys who can play strong defense and put up double-doubles on any given night can be a key addition for a contender.

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There aren’t a lot of teams that will be in the market for a player like Gibson this year. The very best teams in the league are either capped out with little to offer in return or would be giving Chicago too much.

It isn’t unheard of and there are options. If the Bulls are committed to falling out of the playoff race, the first step is to move Gibson. Last year they let Gasol and Noah walk without getting anything in return, they can’t afford to do that again with Taj.

One trade for Gibson that won’t please fans on the other side of the deal is with the Toronto Raptors. Hunter Kuffel wrote about this a week ago for Pippen Ain’t Easy. In his piece, he suggests that the Raptors make an ideal trade partner. The team needs something extra to push themselves into the conversation with the Cavs and Celtics. In exchange, the Bulls would take on Jared Sullinger and Norman Powell. His reasoning:

"“If giving up Norman Powell is what it takes to get a fighting chance against the Cavaliers, however, the Raptors would be foolish not to pull the trigger. The possibility of going to the NBA Finals doesn’t come around often. There’s no use stockpiling assets if you don’t push them to the center of the table at some point and go all in.”"

Raptors fans love Powell, and rightfully so, but that might just be the cost of them pushing to compete with Cleveland.

Another possibility is a team like Charlotte, a team that has struggled for quite some time after a great year in 2015-16 and a strong start to this season. The trade will come down to what they are willing to send back in return. A draft pick? Frank Kaminsky? There might not be much there that they can offer without giving up too much, but a push to improve their playoff standings might be worth it. Imagine Clifford with a Thibodeau disciple in the fold.

Wherever you send him, whatever you get in return, don’t let a free agent walk for free. And he will walk after patiently waiting for his time to come.

Rajon Rondo, PG, Chicago Bulls — Dec 6, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Rajon Rondo (9) against the Detroit Pistons at The Palace of Auburn Hills. The Pistons won 102-91.Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Rajon Rondo, waive or trade, whatever it takes

This one is much trickier. Rondo doesn’t seem to carry much value as a point guard anymore. Allow me to clarify, he doesn’t have much value as a starting point guard anymore. Despite the dysfunction in Chicago right now, he’s proven to be a capable backup.

Rondo’s contract is only partially guaranteed for next season, but the Bulls needs to move on now. He’s not the answer and will not be part of next year’s team. If he continues to perform over the next couple of weeks, they might be able to pull a second-round draft pick or some other kind of expiring from another squad.

Roll out, Robin Lopez

I’ve harped on Lopez being an excellent rim guy on both ends of the floor all season. He’s young, healthier and considerably cheaper than a guy like Noah. He can play strong rim defense, he can pass, he can play great back-to-the-basket offense, and he can even flash a little mid-range if the defense is slacking too far off.

Lopez, of course, also has extreme limitations. He is not a perimeter defender in any form. He can’t go outside to help or switch. If you need a center who will go under or sag off anytime he’s near a screen or pick of some sort, altering shots, this is your guy. He’ll bang all night against the biggest, strongest, and best in the league.

He’s been made to pay for his limitations against players like LaMarcus Aldridge, a gifted big who can knock down shots from the mid-range and further out with impressive accuracy. But he’s also been a fierce offensive rebounded and a body to avoid for opposing perimeter players attacking the rim.

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For a contract, he’s extremely moveable. He has several years left at below market price. A player like Lopez could bring back a solid package of late first round picks and maybe a decent bench player or something similar with multiple seconds. He could make a great backup for a contender or he could strengthen the front line of a lot of teams that are a year or two away from making a big impact or pushing for the playoffs in a serious way.

This isn’t a crazy group of assets being flipped. We’re talking veteran role players that have value to teams more committed to improvement than chasing a draft pick or rebuild. Keep in mind that in this scenario, we’re talking about the Bulls tanking. You mover Taj for seconds and maybe a mid-tier prospect. You move Rondo by any means necessary. Now, you move RoLo for some combination of a late first, multiple seconds, and mid-tier prospects.

It’s a pretty good start without touch any fundamental, core pieces that would be part of the long-term future.

Dwyane Wade speaks for the first time since his cousin's death. — Jul 29, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Dwayne Wade addresses the media during a press conference at Advocate Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Make Wade leave

Dwyane Wade is also out of the picture where the future is concerned. He’s a great of the game, one of the special two-guard defenders and scorers. He’s been the best in the league, won multiple titles and played with some of the best ballers on the planet.

Now, he’s cashing checks and thinking about Men’s Fashion Week in Paris. Wade is still a competitor and loves the game, but he misses more games than he should, plays fewer minutes than his contract should call for and has been a big instigator of the recent drama in Chicago.

Sometimes, it feels like the Bulls are just his pit stop on the way to where he really wants to go. But first, he needs to check playing in Chicago, wearing the same colors for the same team as Michael Jordan. Then, he’s free to go about his business.

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He doesn’t hustle on defense, takes plays off on offense. If it wasn’t for his incredible turnaround jumper, he’d be a net negative on the court. He’s had a couple offensive explosions and can even get up for a dunk once and again, but that just isn’t who he is anymore.

After starting out the season with some comedic 3-point shooting, comedic in that he is an awfully 3-point shooter for his career, but started this season rather strong, he’s come back to earth.

Before the season even started, I suggested that a Wade for Kevin Love trade could be in the works. If Love hadn’t evolved into the player that LeBron thought he was getting right away and Wade hadn’t shown such a large loss of step, I think James would have pulled the trigger on this deal and made David Griffin do it.

There might not be a way to flip Wade for assets, but moving Lopez, Rondo, and Gibson, plus the steps after this, you can be certain that Wade would have no intentions of coming back to town next season.

Dec 12, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls vice president of basketball perations John Paxson (left) and general manager Gar Forman (center) talk with sports writer Sam Smith (right) prior to a game against the New Orleans Pelicans at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Fire Forman (and Paxson)

This isn’t a new thought. Forman has been sitting pretty, making terrible decisions for years. He, and his staff, haven’t been able to consistently draft well. Rose was a no-brainer at No. 1 overall. Even if he wasn’t so good, they would have still taken the hometown kid.

He’s failed to be involved in a team that can develop or even evaluate talent properly. For every Butler – there’s one of him – they also drafted Cameron Bairstow, Marquis Teague, or Erik Murphy. They just don’t get the most band for their buck, over and over.

Bobby Portis and Denzel Valentine aren’t getting much playing time. Portis got the start in favor of injured Gibson on Sunday night against the Philadelphia 76ers. It was strange not just because he started, but because he had racked up four straight DNP-CDs prior to getting the start.

Forman doesn’t take questions from the media and Paxson does impromptu, uninformative press conferences.

Trade Jimmy

This is the ultimate sign that Chicago is giving up for now. The trade of the franchise player, the star wing on the very team-friendly deal for the next couple of years.

Butler is a special guy, not the kind of player you just trade because you can.

It would take an awful lot to move Butler, the kind of offer that only a few teams in the league could make. And he’s an attractive acquisition for those teams because he still has multiple years of team control on a deal that is well below his market value.

All of these reasons that teams would want to trade for Jimmy, also double as reasons why the Bulls shouldn’t trade him.

Let me refresh you, quickly. In a step-by-step process, we have already relived Chicago of Gibson, Rondo, Lopez, Forman, Paxson, and assured that at the very least, Wade won’t be returning for a second year in town. If the Bulls can move at least Gibson and Lopez, waiving Rondo, it’s enough to get to this step. They don’t need to wait for Wade to opt out and they don’t have to dump Forman or Paxson to get to this step. However, they should explore the possibility of replacing management long and hard before moving Butler.

Butler would be wanted by every team in the league. Chicago would have their pick of suitors and if those teams were willing to make a fair trade, it would put them right back in the mix.

The only place that I’m looking is Boston. If Danny Ainge wants to stop “winning trades” just long enough to find himself that last piece they need to battle with LeBron and the Cavs, look no further. A lineup of Isaiah Thomas-Butler-Crowder-Horford-Olynyk is something. Bare minimum, they make life very uncomfortable for Cleveland.

It will cost the Celtics. If they want to compete while Horford is still putting up great numbers and capitalize on the Thomas hot streak, they’ll have to splash it out. Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and the 2017 Brooklyn Nets unprotected pick have to come over in the deal. Even at that trade, Boston is still winning because they get their guy who can put them in the same conversation with the Cavs as best in the East. Without him, they remain just another also ran.

There’s a lot of moving pieces here. A lot of things would have to happen for this to become a reality. It’s almost completely impossible for all of these things to happen. However, if they did, Chicago would be set to return to contention much faster than your average tanking team.

They would receive a first-round pick, several second-round picks, and at least one mid-tier prospects or bench guy from Lopez and Gibson moves. They would be able to cut ties with Rondo, either at cost to themselves or in exchange for an expiring deal or even more second-round picks, depending on the trade partner.

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They would guarantee that Wade would not be back next year, freeing up well over $20 million in salary, and they would have the money to sign Cristiano Felicio to a long-term deal, matching any restricted free agent offers he will receive.

They also get Bradley, Smart and Brown. All three figure to be starters for the 2017-18 version of the tanking Bulls. Figure in Felicio, McDermott, Valentine, Portis, Jerian Grant, and Paul Zipser in that mix and you have a team much more suited to the preferences of Hoiberg, who the team presumably keeps because of the large amount of money they own him.

And then the final piece – the 2017 Nets draft pick. That could be Markelle Fultz, it could be Lonzo Ball, it could be Dennis Smith. It really doesn’t matter. The Bulls would take any of those players if they were given the opportunity. Add any of those players to a young group like the one I mentioned above and you have a team that could likely play close to .500 ball next year and then continue to have cap space to chase the free agents that always get away.

Daniel Coughlin

Daniel is a graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire, works as a Marketing Coordinator by day. At all other hours of day and night, he is editor for FanSided's Pippen Ain't Easy, managing editor for Culture Currency, staff writer at SB Nation's At The Hive, and staff writer for The Lottery Mafia.