Projecting Chicago Bulls Minutes Distribution During Playoffs

In a weird sort of way, the injuries this season have been somewhat of a blessing in disguise for the Chicago Bulls. It has given younger players on this team opportunities for more playing time. With many of these players making the most of these opportunities, Coach Tom Thibodeau has a difficult decision regarding how he wants to divvy up the minutes come playoff time.

Mar 6, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah (13) and coach Tom Thibodeau react after a call during the game against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana defeats Chicago 98-84. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Bulls added a number of talented players this offseason, causing many to speculate that this team could have the most roster depth in the entire NBA. However, Coach Thibodeau quickly quelled these predictions by reiterating the fact that he would only give players playing time if they have unconditionally earned his trust.

From the start of the preseason, Tom Thibodeau has shown a reluctance to utilize his roster depth to the fullest. From the onset of training camp, Thibodeau was constantly asked by reporters to explain his rotation strategy. Here was his response to this question in October.

"“Usually most teams are around nine,” he said. “And then as the playoffs get closer you’re going to pare that down some more. We’ll see. My first two years we played nine, sometimes 10. Ten is hard, most likely nine.”"

However, after uttering these disappointing comments, Thibodeau noted that as the season rolls on and the fatigue and injuries set in, more players are going to get playing time.

"“You try to play too many then nobody plays well. So get your rotation. I think we’ll have a really solid bench. I’m looking forward to that. But over the course of the season you need everybody; things happen, and when your time comes just be ready.”"

Thibodeau predicted right. The injury bug has been particularly prominent this season, and as players go down the next player on the depth chart has had to step up and accept a larger role. Players like Tony Snell, Nikola Mirotic and E’Twaun Moore have been given opportunities to show what they can do. If Thibodeau stays true to his word and “pares” down the rotation once the playoffs begin, it becomes a cutthroat competition on this team over which players will earn playing time.

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As follows are my personal predictions for how many minutes each player on the roster can expect to receive once the playoffs begin. It is important to note that these predictions aren’t reflective of how I would distribute minutes if I were the coach. Rather, they are indicative of how I see Thibodeau dividing up the minutes in the playoffs.

Point Guards:

During the playoffs, coaches shorten their rotation to include only their top players. With this trend in mind, it can be reasonably assumed that all four of the point guards on the Chicago Bulls roster won’t see playing time unless there are injury issues at this position. Thibodeau will likely utilize a three point guard system come playoff time. The hard part becomes figuring out which one of the point guards gets removed from the regular rotation.

Jan 23, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Pau Gasol (16) and guard Derrick Rose (1) and guard Aaron Brooks (0) and forward Taj Gibson (22) during the game against the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. The Bulls defeated the Mavericks 102-98. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Obviously, if Derrick Rose returns by playoff time he is going to be reinserted as the starting point guard. The Bulls aren’t going to bench a player that they are paying $94 million to. The only uncertainty surrounding Rose’s role is whether he will be placed under minute restrictions like he was during the regular season. My guess is that, given the hard-driving antics of Coach Tom Thibodeau, Rose will be back to playing close to full minutes. Giving the pressing necessity to win in the playoffs, the Bulls can ill afford to bench one of their best players in key moments to give him a rest.

Aaron Brooks, hero of Wednesday night’s thrilling victory against Philadelphia, will retain his role as the second string point guard. He has thrived coming off the bench this season and provides an energy spark with his prolific scoring when he is in the game. The players behind him on the depth chart haven’t done anything to dislodge Brooks from the backup point guard role.

Mar 11, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Aaron Brooks (0) shoots the ball past Philadelphia 76ers center Nerlens Noel (4) and guard Isaiah Canaan (0) during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The Bulls won 104-95. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The battle for playing time between Kirk Hinrich and E’Twaun Moore is one of the most pressing rotation questions on the team. At this point in the careers of both players, Moore is the better option because he is younger, more athletic and plays better defense. Hinrich’s main strength at this point in his career is his knowledge of the Bulls’ offense and his ability to orchestrate the offense efficiently. However, Moore has proven remarkably competent at this same task despite being in his first year with the Chicago Bulls. Moore has seen increased minutes in March due to the injuries of Rose and has made the most of these opportunities.

In the month of March, Moore is averaging 6.8 points per game in 16.8 minutes of playing time. The scoring numbers look better considering he is shooting almost 67% from the field in 6 games. He is scoring efficiently and if he took more shots per game his scoring numbers would obviously be higher.

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Equally impressive is Moore’s performance on the defensive side of the ball. Last week against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Moore cooled off a red-hot Russell Westbrook holding the all-star guard to 2-9 from the field in the 4th quarter.

Despite everything that Moore has going for him, he will likely find himself riding the bench for the majority of the playoffs. Tom Thibodeau is all about trust. During his years with the Chicago Bulls, Hinrich has developed that trust with his coach and, because of it, will likely receive a great deal of playing time in the playoffs.

Shooting Guard/Small Forwards

Although he doesn’t need surgery to repair a sprain in his left elbow, Jimmy Butler will likely miss between 3-6 weeks as a result of the injury. When he does come back, expect Tom Thibodeau to immediately return Butler to his full compliment of minutes. During the 2014-2015 season, Jimmy Butler has averaged 38.9 points per game which ranks number one in the entire NBA. He is Thibodeau’s workhorse; a player that could actually see his already tough workload increased come playoff time. With Thibodeau likely to rely heavily on Butler during the playoffs, it eliminates the opportunities for other guys at this position.

Mar 11, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Jimmy Butler (21) sprints up and down the court during warm ups before a game against the Philadelphia 76ers at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Dunleavy has been starting all season for the Bulls when healthy. He will likely get heavy minutes come playoff time.

Tony Snell‘s career trajectory has followed a similar path as Butler. He has significantly improved between his first two seasons in the NBA, and seems to be on the fast track to becoming an all-star caliber player if he continues to improve at this rate. The key for Snell is consistency. When he has been given minutes this season he has produced good numbers.

However, Snell’s case is weakened because the Bulls frequently utilize a two guard set. Snell is a hybrid shooting guard/small forward, and with one of the four point guards frequently eating up minutes at the two spot, this reduces his opportunity for minutes. Tony Snell has proven that he can defend opposing players at a border-line elite level further earning him brownie points with Tom Thibodeau. However, given the fact that Thibodeau has ridden Butler and Dunleavy so heavily this season, expect Snell’s minutes in the playoffs to be reduced to between 10-15.

Doug McDermott hasn’t shown that he can defend sufficiently enough to warrant playing time in the playoffs.

Big Men

Joakim Noah is in a similar situation as Rose. His injury history has prompted Bulls officials to set strict minutes restrictions on the Bulls passionate center. However, the nature of the playoffs disallows the Bulls from continuing to abide by these restrictions and Noah will likely see a spike in his minutes.

Mar 8, 2015; San Antonio, TX, USA; Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah (13) reacts after being called for a technical foul against the San Antonio Spurs during the second half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Veteran big men Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson will likely be leaned on heavily by Tom Thibodeau. Expect both players to see their minutes increased.

The biggest question surrounding the big men crew is whether Nikola Mirotic will crack the playoff rotation. In the absence of Gibson and Dunleavy, Mirotic has been given an opportunity to show what he can do. The biggest thing working against Mirotic is the fact that he doesn’t play defense at the elite level that Tom Thibodeau has come to expect from his players. Mirotic’s effort defensively is off the charts; nobody is going to question whether or not he is trying out there. However, he needs another year or two to fully master Thibodeau’s convoluted defensive system. At times, he forgets where he is on the floor and frequently loses his defensive assignment. He has trouble moving his feet especially when guarding players that are quicker than him. He also has the tendency to reach and tries unsuccessfully to cheat into passing lanes too much. All of this is working against him. My prediction is that he sees his minutes reduced to under 15 per game if the Bulls have a completely healthy roster. Thibodeau will ride with a three man rotation for most of the playoffs, occasionally supplementing Mirotic in there to the tune of 10-15 minutes per game.

Mar 11, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Robert Covington (33) and Chicago Bulls forward Nikola Mirotic (44) battle for a loose ball during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The Bulls won 104-95. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Playoff Minutes Summary:

Starters: Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Mike Dunleavy, Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah

20+ Minutes Coming of Bench: Taj Gibson, Aaron Brooks

10-15 Minutes: Tony Snell, Nikola Mirotic, Kirk Hinrich

Hard Pressed To See Any Playing Time At All: E’Twaun Moore, Nazr Mohammed, Doug McDermott, Cameron Bairstow

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